
Friday, September 03 - 1:36 AM EDT
Andy Glockner: Competitive Atlantic 10 ready to make major impact on the bubble
NCAA Tourney Bubble Watch
Posted: Mon, Feb 08, 10 - 11:36:06 PM EST
Led by Shamari Spears, Charlotte currently sits in first place in the deep Atlantic 10. Credit: Jim Owens/Icon SMI
By Andy Glockner
A slice of bracket history ...
William of Occam was a 14th-century English philosopher whose scientific thinking helped shape the transition from medieval to modern thought. His guiding principle -- today known as Occam's Razor -- states when you are faced with a problem, you should choose the simplest solution that makes sense.
Three-quarters of a millennium later, Occam's Razor is helping shape the transition to modern bubble thought, where the ordering of groups of similar objects may differ greatly from historic trends.
Today's bracket dilemma: What do you do with a conference with six very good teams, where the auto-bid is currently held by a team with one of the weaker at-large profiles in the group, in a year when other major conferences are top-heavy or just bad, and very few mid-majors have staked a real claim?
Channeling William (who would have been masterful on the selection committee): You put them all in.
Yes, there are six Atlantic 10 teams in today's bracket. Yes, that's more than the Big East or the Big Ten. Yes, that looks weird in print, but that's what can happen when there is growing separation at the top of most of the bigger conferences. The line of delineation this week was as clear as it's been all season. Basically, the good teams got in and the rest missed out.
It would take a very unusual sequence of events -- like a near-perfect series of remaining league results, a one-bid Pac-10, no one emerging from the Big East muck and very few small-conference tourney upsets -- for the A-10 to crack open a six-pack on March 14, but it's not impossible. And that's the point.
We have to get to 34 at-larges somehow. So, given today's data, what would William say about a bracket with six A-10 teams in it? The easiest answer is: They all belong.
Remember, records listed are Division I only, per NCAA Tournament selection guidelines. All RPI and SOS data are from Sunday's collegerpi.com RPI report.
Send your very valuable feedback to bubblewatch@gmail.com or to @aglock on Twitter. All submissions are read; polite, fact-based ones stand the best chance of a response. Readers who claim their team's record is wrong because they failed to read the previous paragraph will be forced to live-blog North Carolina's CBI opener.
Summary key:
GW: Good wins over top-50ish foes (home league wins judged more strictly). BL: Bad losses to teams outside top 100 or to direct bubble competitors.
ACC
Locks: Duke
The Blue Devils bounced back against Georgia Tech before struggling again on the road, escaping Boston College by a trey. Duke's relative road woes are a bit alarming at this stage for a team with some veterans. Figuring out the order of the teams after Duke is really difficult now, with unbalanced schedules impacting things.
SHOULD BE IN
Wake Forest (16-5, 6-3, RPI: 15, SOS: 20) overcame a very dicey no-call at the end of regulation to win at Virginia in OT and start to solidify itself as an at-large. The Deacs have a good chance to get to 8-3 with home games against BC and Ga. Tech up next. GW: at Gonzaga, Xavier, Richmond, at UNC? BL: W&M is really weakening now, and at Miami isn't a great loss
IN THE MIX
Georgia Tech (16-6, 5-4, RPI: 25, SOS: 16) is one of many teams that needs to start doing more on the road. Getting crushed at Duke wasn't proof of developing maturity from this talented-but-young team. Neither was beating N.C. State at home by two. The Jackets still head to Wake, Maryland and Clemson. Getting swept by FSU could matter later. GW: Duke (and Siena?), at UNC? BL: Nothing horrible, but too many
Maryland (15-6, 6-2, RPI: 46, SOS: 35) had a big week, polishing off a sweep of FSU by winning in Tallahassee and then discarding UNC like it was Asheville or Greensboro. The Terps still get Duke twice (good for marquee win shots), and also get Virginia twice, home games against GT and Clemson and go to Va. Tech. Not easy, but will help Maryland cement its status if the Terps navigate that OK. GW: Sweep of FSU BL: None, although William & Mary is really weakening
Florida State (17-6, 5-4, RPI: 43, SOS: 58) may rue losing at home to Maryland. Now three of the next four are away and none are easy. Wednesday's game at Clemson is now really big for both teams. The 'Noles' sweep of Ga. Tech is their best work, and that may not end up being enough. The Jackets' overall profile is still better and FSU now has been swept by Maryland. GW: Sweep of Georgia Tech BL: Home to N.C. State; swept by Maryland (for bubble purposes)
Clemson's (16-7, 4-5, RPI: 40, SOS: 32) annual fade is rivaling Groundhog Day for a February tradition. Getting rocked at Va. Tech makes it four of five in the L column. The next three -- FSU, Miami, UVa -- are all at home and might decide the Tigers' NCAA fate. They probably need to get all three with a trio of tough road games left after that. GW: Butler (N) BL: None, but total is mounting and handful to bubble competition: GT, VT, A&M and Illinois
Virginia Tech (18-4, 5-3, RPI: 61, SOS: 180) beat UNC and Clemson at home, which the Hokies absolutely needed to do. Why? The combined conference record of the nine high-major teams VT has beaten this season is 21-51. Translation: They haven't beaten anyone, which explains the RPI and SOS. Other sites will overreact and shove VT into their brackets. Right now, they're still a pretty good team with a pretty weak resume. GW: Clemson? BL: at Miami
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